MTFFL

eazye187 wrote:

wildest fantasy wrote:So, tomorrow while my team is schooling you chumps on the field

So much for that...

Ernie

Oh yeah! I am just lulling all of you guys into a false sense of security until Nat scores 57 points tonight!!!

I took the time to do a little “what if” calculating about the points race vs. H2H. I’ll present the case even though I can see now based on Jeff’s post that the algorithm used for power rank is heavy on record and we have a scoring rule that skews 3/5 of the power rank stats. I’ll come back to that.

Based on h2h records after week 12, 1 team clinched and 7 teams were alive. Of those 7, 2 would be division leaders leaving 5 to vie for the wild card. Of course, some have to win out while others loose out. After week 13, divisions were in fact clinched and those same 5 teams (gamblers, yanks, oompas, rockers, bombs) were still alive. All of which got wins the last week; way to go! But it was for nothing.

I realize of course that mathematically all teams are viable in a points race format. Since there are no limits to the number of touchdowns or tackles a player can get, it is theoretically possible for a team to score infinite points any week. So yes, if Jeff’s team had just stepped it up a bit and scored 660 points week 14 he would have made that wild card spot. Darn it, Jeff, you just missed it! Seriously though, you have to have some reasonable expectation of scores. So, since the division leaders in week 12 did clinch, I just looked at the points race scenario of the 5 teams to see who is viable for 4th spot.

After week 12, The gamblers and yanks didn’t have a snowballs chance in hell and the oompas would have to score near league record setting scores for the next 2 weeks while the rockers and bombs both scored average. That was possible I guess, but not very likely. The rockers were on the bombs heels and I would say the only two teams really viable. After week 13, any flame of hope the oompas might have had was basically snuffed out and it was still just the rockers and bombs.

So, h2h kept 5 alive for week 14 while points race had 2 (maybe 3) alive in week 13. Case closed.

Remember that there are probably millions of people playing in thousands of leagues and they are all looking not only for fun, but more fairness and increased competition. The fantasy football universe trended away from points race formats long ago specifically because the h2h format increased competition in the final weeks.

My head hurts now. Also my team hurts too!

So based on your proposal, random one week loss (usually during the byes), should have more influence on the wild card than 14 games worth of data. Sure, there are going to be high and low games all season, but as a general rule, the teams with the most season points have the best "teams".

Under your rules, if one of lesser teams (Jeff or Jonathan in this case) gets luck one week, and scores one of those magical 250 points games, it could affect the playoffs if you happen to be unlucky one that is matched up against them.

At what point do you determine who is eligible for the WC tiebreakers? Would it be all non-division winners? Would it be those in second place in their respective division? Best overall record of the non-division winners?

MHO......Like I said previously, Im a simpleton and could care less about stats, research, equations, and any other "fancy" words you would like to include there. I enjoy playing fantasy football and not breaking it down at nauseum. I was in a league this season that was based on head to head match ups. It was a 12 team league with 4 playoff spots like ours. There were only two divisions of 6 teams each. There were three teams that came from one division and only the division winner in the division I was in. Our division proved to be the most competitive and we beat up each other. The best teams didnt necessarily make it in.

Having the wild card the way it is now is one of the things I like. Whats next? Waiver wire discussion? Lets change that too! An open waiver wire, wild card, keeping 7, IDP, and multiple ways to set your lineup with a mix of RB/WR/TE, is what makes this league different from all the other leagues I play in. All these things are what makes these leagues the best there is. I love the fact that I have a chance at the wild card even if I suffer a bad beat or two during bye weeks or if I suffer an injury or two to star players. I also like how it makes winning the division that much more important thus making your head to head division record very important. The only way you know you are definitely in the playoffs is to win your division. I struggled with that for years, trying to unseat Smallwood as the perrenial division winner. It was nice to also have the wild card as an option as well, while I was rebuilding my franchise. You have never had to rebuild. You came into the league with all your star players already on your team. I bet if you started at the bottom and had to work your way up, then you would have a greater appreciation of how the wild card system works!

the Man, the Myth... wrote:All these things are what makes these leagues the best there is.

Amen!

Maybe I'll finally break 200 this week!!

Who should be in? Who should be out? And who got F’d in the A?

The other day as I was trying to figure out why the h2h record seemed to be such a poor indicator of team strength and how I managed to find myself in #1 seed with teams like the punishers and rockers below me, I was reminded of a thought I had after week 5. There I was evaluating my team and I realized I was tied for division lead with some good matchups ahead but the only team I had legitimately beat was the zippers. My other 2 wins were by HFA. I had F’d the rockers and then 2 weeks later gave the punishers some sloppy seconds.

Well, I decided to see just how much F’ing was going on around here and let me tell you it was quite a lot this year. Some were pitching, some were catching, some did both, and only a couple abstained. I think Michelle wins for being the most naughty Anyway, since total points is the only stat not corrupted by HFA (every team has +49 points), I used it as a tiebreaker and recalculated the records and rankings (with division leaders 1-3) as if there were no HFA. Here are the results:
Record (overall/division)
1 punishers 11-3/4-2
2 salamanders 9-5/3-3
3 oompas 8-6/5-1
4 rockers 8-6/3-3
5 beatnicks 8-6/2-4
6 bombs 8-6/4-2
7 gamblers 8-6/4-2
8 Yanks 8-6/4-2
9 Knuckles 5-9/2-4
10 rednecks 5-9/2-4
11 eagles 4-10/2-4
12 zippers 2-12/1-5
Whoa! A 6-way tie for 3rd! How’s that for competitive till the end? The punishers (scoring leader) on top where he belongs and the rockers in the playoffs where he belongs. And the oompas actually take the division lead since he kicked some redzone asses. Draft order? The eagles gain 2 spots while the knuckles lose 2. The yanks, gamblers, and bombs all gain 1 spot.

So, the 2 top scoring teams would be matched up and the oompas and salamanders matched up well also. Hmm… looking at the scores this week it looks like the rockers would upset the punishers and the oompas (with an incomplete lineup) would still beat the salamanders. Ouch! Anthony, you would be playing for the money next week bro. You definitely got F’d in the A.

Nice.

eazye187 wrote:

wildest fantasy wrote:So, tomorrow while my team is schooling you chumps on the field

So much for that...

Ernie

Did I say I would school you? Well, what I meant to say was... uhh... I let you win! Yeah, that's it!

Just kidding. Congrats, man.

I've been having some internet difficulties lately so its hard to carry on this discussion, but I will address everyone's comments. Obviously, those previous posts were thoughts I planned out last week and then had to type on Word then paste it in when I could.